tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-201566402024-02-19T00:33:21.338-06:00Seasonally Adjusting My LifeEvery valley shall be exalted, and every mountain and hill shall be made low, and the crooked shall be made straight, and the rough places plain. Isaiah 40:4Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.comBlogger73125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-64350680712315389042017-09-20T20:00:00.000-05:002017-09-20T20:02:11.942-05:00Seasonally Adjusting My Life, AgainI left the Census Bureau in 2005 and moved to Luxembourg to work on contracts for Eurostat. It was such an amazing experience. And a mid-life crisis of epic proportion.<br />
<br />
The move was triggered by a division chief at Census who forbid me to work on a book. Kathy McDonald-Johnson and I had just signed a contract to write a book on seasonal adjustment diagnostics. And my boss's boss told me that I couldn't work on the book, even on my own time using my own computer. He said that working on the book would keep me from putting my all into my work at Census, and I started that afternoon looking for another job.<br />
<br />
While in Europe, and shortly thereafter, it became increasingly clear that my marriage wasn't working and that healing wasn't in the cards. So here was another phase of my mid-life crisis, and this time it was playing out much more publicly than was comfortable for me. <br />
<br />
And I shut down.<br />
<br />
I stopped looking for new clients.<br />
<br />
I stopped all marketing efforts.<br />
<br />
I stopped research.<br />
<br />
I stopped blogging.<br />
<br />
In the 12 years since I left Census, I never stopped thinking about that book that Kathy and I were going to write, but I never started writing it. I didn't write anything.<br />
<br />
It's been five years since my divorce was final. It's taken this long before I've been able to write again. I know I have a book inside of me, but it might not be that seasonal adjustment diagnostics book after all. We'll see. In the meantime, I'm working for clients, and Miriam and I are working on web courses and programming projects again. And I'm going to keep writing.Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-11089018095502570622011-10-06T11:57:00.002-05:002011-10-06T13:05:17.295-05:00Steve Jobs, 1955-2011I realize that there is going to be a lot said about Steve Jobs (who died this week at only 56 years old), but I feel the need to put in my small contribution to the long list of blog posts and web articles. Jobs was the co-founder and later CEO of Apple. I'm not even an Apple user (yet), but I'm amazed at how much Apple and Jobs' ideas have still impacted my life. <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/technology-obituaries/8810037/Steve-Jobs-obituary.html">On the Telegraph's web site</a>, they claim that Steve Jobs "did more to determine what films we watch, how we listen to music, and how we work and play than any other person on the planet." I think they are right.<br />
<br />
I collect quotes. (You can see my collection on the web site at<br />
<a href="http://www.catherinechhood.net/quotes.html">www.catherinechhood.net/quotes.html</a>.) To celebrate the life of Steve Jobs, I'm posting some interesting and favorite Steve Jobs' quotes below.<br />
<br />
<div style="color: #38761d;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>For some historical perspective</b></span></div><br />
From an interview in <i>Playboy</i>, 1 February 1985:<br />
"The most compelling reason for most people to buy a computer for the home will be to link it into a nationwide communications network. We're just in the beginning stages of what will be a truly remarkable breakthrough for most people--as remarkable as the telephone."<br />
<br />
From an interview in <i>Rolling Stone</i>, 16 June 1994:<br />
"Unfortunately, people are not rebelling against Microsoft. They don’t know any better."<br />
<br />
(For the record, I was in college in 1985, writing programs for IBM mainframes, and scared to death of computers. The idea of actually owning one and putting it in my house would have made me laugh. And now I sit here with one on my lap, and I can't imagine life without it. And my favorite computer is my Toshiba laptop, and it runs Windows, even though I hate MS Windows.)<br />
<br />
<div style="color: #38761d;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Steve Jobs on Design </b></span></div><br />
From an interview in BusinessWeek, 25 May 1998:<br />
"That's been one of my mantras -- focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains."<br />
<br />
"It's really hard to design products by focus groups. A lot of times, people don't know what they want until you show it to them."<br />
<br />
From an interview in <i>Inc. Magazine</i>:<br />
"You can't just ask customers what they want and then try to give that to them. By the time you get it built, they'll want something new."<br />
<br />
In the <i>New York Times</i>, "The Guts of a New Machine," 2003:<br />
"[Design] is not just what it looks like and feels like. Design is how it works." <br />
<br />
From <i>CNNMoney</i>:<br />
"It's not about pop culture, and it's not about fooling people, and it's not about convincing people that they want something they don't. We figure out what we want. And I think we're pretty good at having the right discipline to think through whether a lot of other people are going to want it, too. That's what we get paid to do." <br />
<br />
<div style="color: #38761d;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Steve Jobs on business </b></span></div><br />
From an interview on <i>60 Minutes</i>, 2003:<br />
"My model for business is the Beatles. They were four guys who kept each other's kind of negative tendencies in check. They balanced each other and the total was greater than the sum of the parts. That's how I see business: great things in business are never done by one person, they're done by a team of people."<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b style="color: #38761d;">Steve Jobs on moving forward</b></span><br />
<br />
From the commencement address at Stanford University, June 2005:<br />
"Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything -- all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure - these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart." <br />
<br />
"You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something -- your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life."<br />
<br />
"Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking until you find it. Don't settle."<br />
<br />
"Stay hungry. Stay foolish."<br />
<br />
From an interview on the <i>NBC Nightly News</i>, May 2006:<br />
"I think if you do something and it turns out pretty good, then you should go do something else wonderful, not dwell on it for too long. Just figure out what's next."<br />
<br />
From an interview in <i>Fortune</i>:<br />
"We don't get a chance to do that many things, and every one should be really excellent. Because this is our life. Life is brief, and then you die, you know? And we've all chosen to do this with our lives. So it better be damn good. It better be worth it." <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b style="color: #38761d;">Steve Jobs on Life</b></span><br />
<br />
"Here’s to the crazy ones. The misfits. The rebels. The troublemakers. The round pegs in the square holes. The ones who see things differently. They’re not fond of rules. And they have no respect for the status quo. You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them. About the only thing you can't do is ignore them. Because they change things. They push the human race forward. And while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius. Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones who do."Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-91703487140505658552011-09-11T22:55:00.033-05:002011-09-18T18:12:11.767-05:00The September 11 AnniversaryThis has been a very difficult anniversary for me. I know there are people who lost a lot on that day, and by comparison, my losses seem small.<br />
<br />
I lived and worked in the DC suburbs back then, and I felt the shockwaves from the Pentagon when the airplane hit. My then 5-year-old was very traumatized, especially when she learned that her Sunday school teacher worked in the section of the Pentagon that had been hit by the plane. It was shortly after September 11 that my 7-year-old decided she should join the armed forces, a decision that she is still working toward. It was just a few days after September 11 that my husband and best friend decided he needed to rethink his religious views, a decision that has made it difficult for us to talk about religion, politics, and other issues even after 10 years.<br />
<br />
I remember that day very well. Who would have thought that it would still be so difficult all these years later?Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-52076847276252783872011-09-05T19:37:00.046-05:002011-09-18T17:55:22.356-05:00The Summer of FunMy oldest child graduated from high school in May and left for college a couple of weeks ago. As a celebration of our last summer together, we decided to pull out all the stops for a "Summer of Fun." <br />
<br />
My middle child (who is now a senior in high school) planned a college-tour trip to Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska. It isn't that she wants to go to college in any of those states, it turns out, but her older sister got to go on a college tour, so it seemed like the thing to do. What she really wanted, and what we did, was to go to the Monkees (as in "Hey, Hey, we're the Monkees") reunion tour concert at the Minnesota Zoo on July 1. Then we visited relatives in Iowa and Nebraska. In late July, to celebrate a monumental birthday of my mother's, she took all her kids and grandkids to Disney World for a week. In early August, my oldest and I went to the Joint Statistical Meetings in Miami Beach while the other two hung out in the ocean and at the pool.<br />
<br />
The first trip was a working trip, but the trip to Disney World was a real vacation for me. I didn't even check my email. Then as soon as we got home, it was time to take my oldest to college, and it's difficult to work when you are constantly driving. <br />
<br />
I have two more kids in high school. My children take their courses by correspondence, which means that they are working at home --- usually in the dining room while I'm working in my office. After years of being home with my kids, it feels very strange to have one of the children not here.<br />
<br />
It was nice at the time to have a real vacation and some quality time with my child, but now that it's time to get back to work, I'm feeling the stress. The extra quiet in the house isn't helping matters either. Hopefully I can get caught up in another week and be ready to take on new projects again. Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-87246309938172756862011-03-11T19:54:00.002-06:002011-03-11T19:54:00.672-06:00Pi Day RecipeBelow is my favorite recipe for Pi Day, a very geeky U.S. holiday --- March 14 or 3/14 is the first three digits of pi. <br />
<br />
Pi Day Ravioli Casserole<br />
Prep time: 10-15 minutes<br />
Baking time: 40-50 minutes<br />
Serves 8<br />
<br />
Ingredients<br />
<ul><li>2 bags (22 or 24 oz) frozen, round, cheese-filled, mini ravioli (slightly thawed for ease of stirring)</li>
<li>1 large or 2 medium zucchini, cut into slices</li>
<li>1 jar/can (26 oz) tomato and garlic pasta sauce</li>
<li>1 c. pepperoni slices (5 oz)</li>
<li>1 c. shredded mozzarella cheese</li>
<li>1/2 t. Italian seasoning, if desired </li>
</ul><br />
Directions<br />
<ol><li>Heat oven to 350 degrees.</li>
<li>In large bowl, mix all ingredients except cheese and Italian seasoning.</li>
<li>Spoon mixture into an ungreased 9- by 13-inch glass baking dish. Sprinkle with Italian seasoning and cheese.</li>
<li>Bake 40 to 50 minutes or until hot and bubbly.</li>
</ol><br />
Notes:<br />
In some stores, it is difficult to find the small, round ravioli. I used to find them at Kroger, but now I have my best success at Food Lion. Finding the correct ravioli for Pi Day is very important. :-)<br />
<br />
I also usually use more Italian seasoning than the recipe calls for, probably more than 1 t. for a square baking dish. I really like oregano.<br />
<br />
You can also make this ahead the night before, cover it and store in the refrigerator, then uncover and bake the next day.Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-59729443654959091512011-03-08T08:20:00.002-06:002011-03-08T20:06:00.828-06:00Mardi Gras RecipeTo celebrate Mardi Gras, here is an alcohol-free version of Bananas Foster, created by Brennan's in New Orleans. This recipe was created in the 1950's when New Orleans was a major port for the import of bananas.<br />
<br />
Catherine's Bananas Foster<br />
Serves Six<br />
<br />
Ingredients<br />
<ul><li>1/2 cup (1 stick) butter</li>
<li>1 cup brown sugar</li>
<li>1/2 teaspoon cinnamon</li>
<li>6 bananas, cut in half lengthwise, then halved</li>
<li>6 scoops vanilla ice cream</li>
</ul><br />
Directions<br />
<ol><li>Combine the butter, sugar, and cinnamon in skillet.</li>
<li>Place the pan over low heat and cook, stirring, until the sugar dissolves.</li>
<li>Place the bananas in the pan and heat until the banana sections soften and begin to brown.</li>
<li>Lift the bananas out of the pan and place four pieces over each portion of ice cream.</li>
<li>Generously spoon warm sauce over the top of the ice cream and serve immediately.</li>
</ol><br />
For the original version of this recipe, please check out the <a href="http://www.neworleansrestaurants.com/new-orleans-recipes/recipes_brennans.php">Brennan's recipe on the New Orleans Recipes site</a>.Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-11138986275125828422011-03-03T07:34:00.001-06:002011-03-03T07:34:00.369-06:00New "Case Study" Paper on the WebA new paper on the Catherine Hood Consulting site:<br />
<a href="http://www.catherinechhood.net/papers/casestudy_spectralpeaksinmodelresiduals.pdf">Case Study: Fixing Residual Trading Day Effects in the Seasonally Adjusted Series</a><br />
<br />
Now that my boxes are unpacked (yes, yes, I know, it only took me five years), I have the notes I need to continue writing the case studies book that Kathy and I started back in 2004. To see the outline in its current state, check out <a href="http://www.catherinechhood.net/cchhthebook.html">the "Case Study Project" page</a>.Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-30733442419308088652011-02-21T17:16:00.010-06:002011-02-21T17:37:15.454-06:00"Make them do math"One of the more controversial books in recent days is called <b><i>The Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother</i></b> by Amy Chua. In January, an excerpt from the book appeared in the Wall Street Journal under the headline, "Why Chinese Mothers Are Superior." Amy Chua didn't write the headline, but in the book she does describe forcing her daughters to practice the piano and work on their math problems. <br />
<br />
Monica Hesse from the Washington Post in an article titled "'Tiger Mother' author faces a tough crowd at Politics and Prose" writes, "Maybe the way to help children do better in math is to make them do math, rather than make them talk about how math makes them feel."<br />
<br />
If that's what being a Tiger Mother is all about, then sign me up. Especially if it also includes forcing my daughters to play the piano.Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-7943206393989360222011-02-10T20:43:00.008-06:002011-02-21T18:20:04.747-06:00Year-over-year changes versus seasonally adjusted dataIn the article "<a href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204098404576131181677924922.html?mod=BOL_da_udwsd">Seasonally Adjusted, the Job Market Is Great</a>" by Randall W. Forsyth, he says that the current seasonal adjustments won't be accurate because of the recent bad economy. In a lot of ways, this is correct, but it's not that simple.<br />
<br />
Forsyth quotes John Williams from Shadow Government Statistics (<a href="http://www.shadowstats.com/">www.shadowstats.com</a>) who says that seasonal adjustment "has fallen apart in the last several years due to the effects of the extraordinarily protracted and severe economic contraction. Simply put, the severe decline in economic activity has overwhelmed traditional patterns of seasonal activity, destabilizing the calculation of seasonal-adjustment factors using the traditional mathematical models that are based on a number of years of activity, with the greatest weighting given to the most recent period's patterns." <br />
<br />
Forsyth then says, "That means the worse the recent experience, the greater the seasonal adjustment to boost the unadjusted result." <br />
<br />
However, what both Forsyth and Williams aren't taking into account is that the seasonal adjustment procedure used to produce the employment/unemployment numbers takes unusual events into account. Depending on the filters used and the settings for the extreme value procedure, the values in recent years may NOT be getting the largest weights. The current seasonal adjustment procedure also takes the length of the reporting period into account, something that can sometimes have a significant effect on the numbers.<br />
<br />
I was recently looking at some specific manufacturing series for a client. In some sectors, their production dropped significantly in 2008, and when production began to pick up in 2009, the seasonal pattern was different than it had been earlier in the decade. For a series like this, the seasonal adjustment could be quite unstable for several years as the software tries to discover what the new seasonal pattern will be. However, for the employment series I've looked at over the past two or three years, the actual seasonal pattern (and the pattern related to the length of the reporting period or the weekday composition of the month) has remained quite steady. It doesn't matter if the overall level of the series drops --- if the seasonal pattern stays the same, the seasonal adjustment procedure can estimate the pattern and remove the pattern. <br />
<br />
As often happens in articles about seasonal adjustment, the "solution" that is often suggested is to look at year-over-year changes. This, in fact, was suggested in the comments by Stephen Wilson, who wrote, "As to seasonal adjustment, I can't imagine why anyone cares. It snows every winter and it's hot in the summer. If you look at year-over-year rates of change the only distortions are from truly unusual events. Both the household and payroll survey agree that jobs are growing slowly and the rate of growth is slowly rising."<br />
<br />
The problem with year-over-year changes is that it takes too long to see any meaning changes in the economy. When will we come out of this slump? Isn't that really what everyone is talking about, what everyone wants to know? Year-over-year changes won't let you see a turning point in the economy until it is well past.<br />
<br />
Seasonal adjustment does result in loss of information. It is critically important for analysts to look at the original numbers and the year-to-year changes. It is also important to remember that the seasonal adjustment procedures in use now are much more sophisticated that simple exponential weighting of past values.<br />
<br />
By the way, the subheading of the article is "Past years' bad economy ironically help flatter current data. Bob Dylan knew better." And he begins the article by saying, "Everybody talks about the weather, but government statisticians actually do something about it: they seasonally adjust it." If only that were true about the weather. I'm reminded of a favorite quote of mine: <br />
<blockquote>The role of the economist is to make weathermen look good. --Stephen Gallogly</blockquote>Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-61464235471879128032011-01-17T08:40:00.005-06:002011-01-24T20:49:00.536-06:00Seasonal Adjustment for a Bad Mood<div style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In my search for articles about seasonal adjustment, I often find articles about seasonal adjustment disorder, also known as seasonal affective disorder. But aside from seasonal affective disorder, there is some truth about moods being seasonal, and I always wish that I could seasonally adjust my moods because December and January can be difficult times.</span></div><div style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In the article, "Feeling Blue? Some Say Jan. 17 is the Worst Day of the Year" by Shelley Emling at <a href="http://livingston.patch.com/articles/jan-17-the-worst-day-of-the-year">http://livingston.patch.com/articles/jan-17-the-worst-day-of-the-year</a>. She says that several years ago, a British psychologist named Dr. Cliff Arnall devised a formula that combined "various ingredients" in a "complicated equation" to calculate that the third Monday in January is the "gloomiest" day of the year. The variables include weather, debt, monthly salary, time since Christmas, and low motivational levels. </span></div><div style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">When I first read about this formula, I thought that maybe he had done some kind of regression analysis, but after more reading (<a href="http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/story.html?id=6637dce1-14f7-403b-9b46-a347bd3c8f23&k=53047">http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/story.html?id=6637dce1-14f7-403b-9b46-a347bd3c8f23&k=53047</a> for example), it seems that the formula isn't so scientific. He says that most of his data comes from talking to people, seeing when they feel down, and working out a common denominator. The original sponsor of the study was an airline magazine, and the purpose of the study was to encourage people to book travel.</span></div><div style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Dr. Arnall has since admitted that knowing the worst day of the year could make it be the worst day of the year. And the worst day of the year would depend on the person. </span></div><div style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">I was thinking that I should write an application that would run a regression on the amount of sunshine in a day, temperatures, debt, etc., and find the worst week. I wouldn't even need trading day because it's always good to blame Monday as the worst day of the week. </span></div><div style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In the meantime, I will try not to think about this being the worst day of the year.</span></div>Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-40968264387797941692011-01-14T23:40:00.002-06:002011-01-24T23:41:49.580-06:00Bad Seasonal AdjustmentsSeveral web sites have referred to "bad seasonal adjustment" or "bad seasonal adjustment combined with inclement weather in late December" as the cause for the increase in unemployment claims or problems with the payroll numbers.<br />
<br />
Sometimes I take the phrase "bad seasonal adjustment" as a criticism of the seasonal adjustment software or the people who set the options in the seasonal adjustment software. I have to remind myself, though, that most people think about any kind of seasonal adjustment like it's a black box. So I suppose that a bad seasonal adjustment means that there is an extreme seasonal factor for that particular month so that the changes to the seasonally adjusted series from the raw series will also be extreme.<br />
<br />
And if there was unusual weather in December that was causing something unusual to happen in the time series, then the seasonal adjustment software will take this into account.<br />
<br />
Maybe I take it too personally. I looked at the seasonal adjustments for payroll, and all the factors and all the diagnostics, and it all looked really good to me.Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-66423762284886884962010-09-24T19:48:00.017-05:002010-09-25T17:09:38.729-05:00Ora Time and ExpenseI often bid projects by the project and not by time, but some clients pay for a certain number of hours for on-going projects, and for those clients, I need to keep track of time. Based on a recommendation from a friend, I started using a site called Tick (<a href="http://www.tickspot.com/">www.tickspot.com</a>) to track time for clients. For free, they let you track time for one client, so I used the site to track time for my biggest per-hour client. <br />
<br />
Recently I was downloading at update for my Adobe PDF Reader, and I discovered that there is a whole group of Adobe AIR programs available for free. One of the programs that had won some awards and had been downloaded often was a program called Ora Time and Expense (<a href="http://www.johnwu.com/ora/">www.johnwu.com/ora</a>). It was free to download and use, so I thought I would give it a try.<br />
<br />
I've been using Ora Time now for almost a month, and I love it. I use it for all of my clients, even the ones that I've bid on the project, not the time. It helps me keep track of the time I spend on clients, and I also time the administrative tasks that I have to do, too. (I've been thinking that I might start timing the tasks to teach Calculus and Statistics for the girls.) With Tick, when I finished something for a client, I had to log into Tick (which sometimes meant turning on my wireless to get on the Internet), pick the client and the project, and enter in the time. With Ora, before I start on a project, I can select the client and the project and hit the timer, and as soon as I'm finished, I hit stop, and the time is recorded for the project. If I want to enter a project and a time, I can do that, too. The program keeps track of expenses, too, though I don't use that feature as much as I use the time tracker, though I like the expenses feature, too.<br />
<br />
Well, I guess my time is up. Time to do some work on some contracts.Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-24648760336134584662010-08-02T13:59:00.001-05:002010-08-07T18:06:37.626-05:00Back after a holidayI'm back from vacation, and the new web course is on-line. The beta testers found a couple of technical problems, but overall, the course was in pretty good shape. A big "THANK YOU" to J.O. for his questions on the content, too. I appreciate the effort. <br /><br />While I work on getting the basic X-12 course on-line, work also continues for all my great clients! <br /><br />And the house and the office are quiet because my kids are working on their course work for the 2010-2011 school year. This year they are all in high school and all taking classes through correspondence, except for the AP math classes. <br /><br />Life is great!Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-47092807214203965202010-07-20T21:31:00.003-05:002010-07-20T21:43:31.147-05:00Math and Science Week 2010This week is Math and Science week at the Hood House. If the kids want a three week Christmas break (which they do) and want to finish in mid-May to match the public schools here (which they do), then we have to start school in July. Some subjects are more intense than others, so we started with math and science. (Last week was Shakespeare Week, not because we needed to read Shakespeare for school, but just to get the kids used to school again, and to stop anyone from being bored.)<br /><br />This year I am teaching both AP Statistics and AP Calculus. The good news is that my first AP Statistics student got her scores back last week, and she got a 4. That gives me some confidence as I sail into a new year.<br /><br />Most parents are happy when school is back in session. It's entirely different when the parent is a teacher. Fortunately for me, my children go to a correspondence school, so the only classes that I have to teach are math. I'm having enough trouble keeping up with lesson plans for AP Calculus. I can't imagine having to take on anything more for the girls.<br /><br />To celebrate Math and Science Week, we went to Office Depot today to spend some of my coupons. I got some office supplies, but we also bought pens, pencils, erasers, paper, and notebooks for the girls. I have learned, though, to put the office supplies on a different bank card than the school supplies. I'm learning to manage all my tasks much more efficiently.<br /><br />ttfnCatherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-44694222261638638232010-07-02T18:03:00.002-05:002010-07-02T18:09:34.446-05:00First Web Course completed!The first of many (knock on wood) web courses is completely finished and on the web. I wanted it done by June 15, but had to settle for July 2 instead. Beta testing started on June 28 (because I had the first 2/3 completed), and so far, the comments have been really positive. I made a list earlier of what I needed to complete to get course #2 and course #3 on the web, and it's completely do-able. After that, I'm going to slow down a bit with the courses. I think that with an X-13 course on the web, most everyone who is interested in courses could find something they like in a nice price range.<br /><br />Now it's time to relax and start to enjoy a long holiday weekend. <br /><br />Happy Independence Day, everyone!Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-12343559480706517942010-06-29T17:55:00.004-05:002010-06-29T18:33:18.041-05:00B2B sales calls and squiggly pensI learned very quickly after getting a telephone line for Catherine Hood Consulting that the "Do Not Call" Registry is only for private lines. The first day I had my phone line, I had four phone calls just from companies trying to sell me credit card machines. I've had people trying to sell me magazine subscriptions for my waiting room (I don't have a waiting room). And people trying to convince me that I should have a web site (I already have a web site). But the strangest call I had was to try to sell me pens.<br /><br />About a month ago, I answer my phone the usual way when I don't know who's calling: "Hello, Catherine Hood Consulting."<br /><br />The voice on the other end of the phone says, "Hey! Want to come to San Diego and go bungie jumping with me?"<br /><br />I think that his guy either has the wrong number or he knows absolutely nothing about me. So I say, "This is Catherine. I think you may have the wrong number."<br /><br />"No, Cathereen, I'm trying to reach you. I'm from ***** in San Diego, and we have tons of pens that we have to get rid of, so I am going to make you a fabulous offer on custom printed pens."<br /><br />At that point, I realize that I had already talked to someone from his company the day before, a woman, and I told her that it didn't matter that she was calling from a very famous company (that I had never heard of) or that she really needed to get rid of pens, I didn't want to be on their calling list. Obviously, asking to be off the list didn't work.<br /><br />"No, thank you," I say.<br /><br />"You have no idea what a great deal we can make!"<br /><br />"I have absolutely no cash right now. Nothing in my bank account at all."<br /><br />"Oh. Well."<br /><br />Silence. This seemed to be an argument he hadn't heard before.<br /><br />"Good-bye," I said.<br /><br />"Yeah. Good-bye."<br /><br />They haven't called back.<br /><br />I like pens. My very favorite day at University of Iowa Hospitals was the end of June, the end of the fiscal year. To use up the office supply budget, our boss let Lisa and I go down to the supply depot and buy as many different kinds and colors of pens as we could find. It was one of the best shopping trips ever, and with taxpayer money. At the Census Bureau, I loved to go to the supply cabinets and look for new kinds of pens. For me, the use of government pens while at work was a great fringe benefit of my good government job. Even now that I have to buy my own pens, I try to keep a lot of good pens handy. I like them for work and for grading the kids' homework.<br /><br />The idea of custom-printed pens sounded pretty cool, but I didn't want to buy pens from the goofy guy in San Diego who didn't even pronounce my name correctly and thought I would like to bungie jump. I just kept thinking that you would have to be a really bad salesman to NOT be able to sell me a bunch of pens.<br /><br />Last week, I got a free pen in the mail from a pen company in Tennessee. It's a "squiggle pen," and I love squiggly pens because they look like time series. And it was purple, and purple is my favorite color. And it says "Catherine Hood Consulting" on it, with my phone number. The point of the mailer is that everyone loves to get free pens, and to demonstrate this fact, they sent me a free pen. It was a very effective mailing --- and a lovely pen.<br /><br />I am so ready to buy a bunch of purple squiggle pens, and give them away to anyone who might be able to send clients my way. As soon as I can fit it into my budget. Because who wouldn't want a free time series pen!Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-74010660162491130922010-06-18T13:46:00.005-05:002010-06-18T16:33:22.015-05:00Life in ShoesI hate shoes. As long as I can remember, I've hated shoes.<br /><br />I remember elementary school teachers fussing at me about keeping my shoes on, even on the coldest days of the winter. I had to keep my shoes on in junior high and high school --- it was part of the dress code --- though some teachers didn't pay much attention and you could slip off your shoes while you were sitting at your desk. One thing I loved about college was that I didn't have to wear shoes to class. In fact, it was common practice during the rainy season to put our shoes (and a towel) in our backpacks and wade to class barefoot.<br /><br />At Yellowstone National Park in the summers of my college years, I found myself wearing shoes because I needed to in the hours when I wasn't working. Between the hot water and the boardwalks, there were very few places where I could go barefoot outside of my dorm room. In the hotel, I needed to wear shoes if I wanted to eat. But when I was working and sitting at the piano, it was easy to take off my shoes and convince the manager that I could feel the pedals better without my shoes on.<br /><br />For graduate school, I moved to Iowa where I spent most of the winters wishing I could go barefoot, and most of the summers walking around campus barefoot. I got a lot of stares. Maybe it's the farming culture there, but there were not a lot of people going barefoot in Iowa City.<br /><br />My first "real" job after grad school was in the Reproductive Testing Lab at the University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics. Shoes were required because I had to go in the labs sometimes, and it wasn't safe without shoes. I also sometimes had to interact with patients, and my boss thought if I was barefoot, I would look like an escapee from the Psych ward. However, after less than 2 months at that job, I broke all five metatarsals in my right foot. I was in a cast---a fate worse than shoes. After the cast was weeks wearing a board strapped to my foot. It would have been torture for me a few months earlier, but after weeks in a cast, it felt good to be able to wiggle my toes.<br /><br />At the Census Bureau, I found out with pregnancy #3 that I was quite famous for being constantly "barefoot and pregnant." I wish I had heard about those comments earlier because I might have worn shoes more often. But then again, I was so uncomfortable when I was pregnant that I might not have changed my habits. After I became a manager, they made me take classes in topics like alcohol and substance abuse. The instructor told us that one of the signs of someone with an alcohol or drug problem was that the person would walk around barefoot. The people in the class that knew me all look in my direction and laughed. The instructor was not amused when he realized I had come to class barefoot.<br /><br />Bud Pautler told me that I should always dress for my next promotion. It was because of that advice that I did start wearing shoes more often, though it was still very difficult to keep them on all day long.<br /><br />Then I start my own consulting business with an office in a corner of the house just a few steps from my bedroom. "Aaaah," I think to myself, "I never have to wear shoes again."<br /><br />But running a business from home is difficult, especially with kids in the house. To help me get a handle on keeping the house running even when I had a lot of work to do for clients and the kids, I started visiting the web site of house-cleaning guru The Fly Lady. I liked her advice, and my house was staying cleaner. Then I read her article on <a href="http://www.flylady.net/pages/FLYingLessons_Shoes.asp">"Getting Dressed to the Shoes,"</a> and it put me in a quandary.<br /><br />She says that she used to work for a "direct sales cosmetics company." The sales staff were told that they couldn't make any phone calls to customers unless they were completely dressed, including dress shoes. The company claimed that everyone will act differently in dress clothes and shoes. "The customer can tell when you don't feel good about the way you look." After that, as much as I still hated shoes, I decided that I should dress for work, including shoes.<br /><br />Not everyone agrees with The Fly Lady. One of the comments on mothering.com said that the advice about wearing shoes keeps her off The Fly Lady's web site. She said there was only one reason to wear shoes at home if you are a stay-at-home Mom: If you spend too much time cleaning, your babies might attack your toes when they want attention.<br /><br />On the web site Productivity501.com, in the article <a href="http://www.productivity501.com/stop-squandering-time-at-home/7497/">"Stop Squandering Time At Home,"</a> the author says that taking off your shoes improves productivity because you spend less time cleaning floors and carpets. I'm sure that The Fly Lady would say that if this is a problem, then get some shoes for the outside in the mud and snow and other shoes to wear inside.<br /><br />Gretchen Rubin says in <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gretchen-rubin/balanced-life----put-on-y_b_277806.html">her article on shoes</a> that when she was in law school, her roommate told her about a study that said grad students "who put on their shoes each morning were markedly more efficient than those who padded around in their stocking feet." Unfortunately, she couldn't find the study. Neither could I when I tried to Google it back then or again today.<br /><br />The Fly Lady says that we need to wear professional shoes or at least lace-up shoes. That is a no-go for me. After my second round of broken bones, my ankle is so swollen that there are very few lace up shoes that are comfortable for me. I wear crocs around the house and open-backed dress shoes to church, but my dress shoes look similar to my work shoes, and probably none of them would pass muster with The Fly Lady.<br /><br />The danger in crocs or sandals or flip-flops is that they are easy to kick off. I get dressed in the morning in a simple dress or in pants and a nice shirt, and I put on my crocs. But there are so many times when I go to answer the phone and realize that somewhere along the way I've lost my shoes.<br /><br />Today is one of those days when I have several clients, colleagues, and contacts who have said that they will be calling, so I'm making an effort to keep my shoes on today. Hopefully, the people I talk to will appreciate my professionalism. Maybe they'll say to themselves, "I'm not sure what it was exactly, but Catherine sounded different today. Maybe she's wearing her shoes."Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-72455535111540052802010-05-31T10:37:00.000-05:002010-06-04T11:00:20.315-05:00Seasonal adjustments for weekly seriesI've been trying to learn the software from the Fed that does seasonal adjustment for weekly series. The software is not user-friendly, so it's been a difficult learning curve. Tom Evans at BLS is working on a SAS interface that will make the program easier to use, but the interface is still in development. Tom has been helping me learn the program, and he helps me fix my errors when I make a mistake because error messages are nonexistent in the program. I was also having trouble getting the program to run on my series, and I believe it's because my series are short, so the program has trouble estimating holiday effects.<br /><br />In the short term, I have found that I can get something like looks like a seasonal adjustment from X-12 if I ask for a trend. I can get it almost as smooth or as rough as I would like by changing the trend filter length. With a limit on the Henderson filters of 101, and with a period of 52 (and sometimes 53), the very longest trend doesn't really look like a trend because you can still see the seasonality. But with a very short trend, it is very close to what I get from the Fed's program. So in the short term, I like what I get from X-12, and it's a lot easier to use.Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-44860727291348406602010-05-19T13:23:00.001-05:002010-06-04T11:01:36.408-05:00AP Statistics rain dateThe AP Statistics rain date was today. My oldest went into the test site a bit apprehensive, but she found a seat with decent lighting, and when she left, she was smiling. My first foray into teaching AP Statistics, and so far it seems like a success.Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-66895653268990688512010-05-08T20:34:00.004-05:002010-05-08T21:23:44.285-05:00Flooding in Middle TennesseeIn seasonal adjustment, we are very often looking at series with unusual values, and often I'm looking for natural disasters that have caused problems in my series. This week, the natural disaster has been in my backyard.<br /><br />If you live outside of Nashville, you may not have heard, but Middle Tennessee was hit by a huge flood last week. The national news coverage gave us 15 minutes, mostly due to a failed car bomb in Times Square. Though I understand that terrorism is a real problem, what is happening in Tennessee (and the Gulf of Mexico, I might add) seems to me to be more important.<br /><br />Nashville had its highest rainfall totals since records began. The Cumberland River and every other river in the area crested at their highest levels in over 80 years. People drowned, some of them stuck in their cars in Interstate-24. The cost of the damage is in the billions; it might be the costliest non-hurricane disaster in American history. It is the single largest disaster to hit Middle Tennessee since the War Between the States.<br /><br />At our house, the flood waters reached almost to the barn, the highest we've ever seen the creek overflow its banks. Fortunately, we were all here on Saturday, and our house sits high on a hill and is quite waterproof, even when there is more than 15 inches of rain in a single day. My husband had to wade across the creek in the lightening to get to work early this week, but he made it through and back home again. My oldest daughter's AP test was postponed until May 19 (and she was really ready to have it finished), and my middlest daughter couldn't get her braces off because her orthodontist lost his car in the flood and couldn't get to the office.<br /><br />Maybe the best part of the story is that Nashville <span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">isn't</span> on the news. Maybe it's because there was no major looting, no major breakdown in rescue operations. The stories on the local news are about high school kids that are helping people clear the belongings from damaged houses and neighbors who were pulling their neighbors off rooftops using canoes or jet skis. We saw this same kind of cooperation after the big tornado in Murfreesboro just over a year ago. Maybe Nashville and the rest of Middle Tennessee isn't on the national news because in spite of the disaster, there isn't so much bad news in Middle Tennessee.<br /><br />I'm so proud to be living in Tennessee. I'm so proud of how we all come together and take care of each other.Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-45658716352401851842010-04-30T17:02:00.000-05:002010-05-08T21:18:40.697-05:00Newsletters and other goalsI sent out a newsletter today. It feels great to have concrete goals for my business and to see them accomplished. Not only did I get the newsletter sent out, but I also put new content on the web including updates to the X-12 "Getting Started" papers.<br /> <br />I'm trying some new software to help me keep track of client projects. I'm putting my projects on the list, too, so that even when I am very busy working on projects for clients, I'm still working on my own projects, too --- projects like updates on papers on TRAMO/SEATS, the web courses, and the third quarter newsletter coming out in July.Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-91706049657099511312010-04-21T23:11:00.001-05:002010-04-22T02:02:39.302-05:00More researchI just finished reading a book about brands and intellectual property. I'm not sure I learned much, but it was good to review the material. Much easier to read than the books on tax laws.<br /><br />I also finished researching textbooks to use for teaching AP Calculus BC and how to rent a bassoon (not every music store rents bassoons, and even oboes are hard to find, I have learned).<br /><br />My mom was here for a couple of days, and she'll be back on Sunday for the big choir festival I'm singing in. I'm also having to rearrange my office a bit for some installation of extra phone lines next week.<br /><br />In the middle of this, there is work to do for clients, and papers to write, and web pages to update, and audio files to record. Not to mention meals to cook and dishes to wash.<br /><br />Sometimes I'm amazed at how crazy one person's life can be.<br /><br />In order to try to hang on to a thread of sanity, I'm taking a break from my business books. I'm going to finish <span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">Three Cups of Tea</span> by Greg Mortenson and David Oliver Relin that I borrowed from my mom. Hopefully in time to return it to her on Sunday. I'm really enjoying the book. The story is amazing, though sometimes the writer gets so dramatic about the situations that I have to remind myself that it's based on Greg's true story. I started it a while ago and got distracted by life. But now I have a goal, so now is the time to finish the book.<br /><br />After that, I'm going to read <span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">The World Is Flat 3.0: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century</span> by Thomas L. Friedman. It's an economics book, I suppose, but it's a little less intense than books about laws for small businesses. <br /><br />This is interesting. Well, interesting to me . . .<br />Amazon classified <span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">The World Is Flat</span> as Politics, but I've read enough of it to believe that it's more about the economics of globalization than about the politics of it. I enjoyed the few pages I've read, and I don't always like "political" books, so maybe I see the economic side of it because that's what I understand. To me, <span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">Three Cups of Tea</span> is more of a political book, though it reads like an adventure story, since Mortenson is building schools for girls in Pakistan and Afghanistan. But Amazon has it classified as Women and Business? It's a story about a man who builds schools for girls, and some of the girls go on to be very successful, but that is a very odd category for this book. Who decides on the categories? The publisher or Amazon? Hmmmmmm.<br /><br />Well, it's time to get some reading done.<br /><br />ttfnCatherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-51205896402222767262010-04-09T16:00:00.004-05:002010-04-10T16:11:51.686-05:00Book report: Working For YourselfAfter doing some research on small businesses<span style="font-style: italic;"></span>, I decided that I needed a book specifically on the legal aspects of consulting, including the issue of sole-proprietorship versus incorporating. I ordered <span style="font-style: italic;">Working for Yourself: Law & Taxes for Independent Contractors, Freelancers & Consultants</span> (7th edition, 2008) by attorney Stephen Fishman. The book is not as boring as the title would imply, though it's not the kind of book that is easy to just sit down and read. The chapters are ordered quite logically, but it's also easy to skip chapters that don't apply to your situation or to only read the chapters related to the information you need right now.<br /><br />I appreciate the fact that this book is for consultants and others in the service sector, not for retailers or manufacturers. He starts with the very basics, so if there is a chapter that I already knew something about, like copyrights and intellectual property, then the early material in the chapter was just a review for me. However, even in the chapter on copyrights, I still learned something. Therefore, in the chapters about tax laws for small businesses (something I knew almost nothing about), everything I read was something new to me.<br /><br />Mr. Fishman also gives very practical advice. For example, he gives several tips on how to find the right financial adviser for your small business. For some, this may seem simple, but for me, this was extremely welcome advice. I think that one reason I've been putting off talking to a financial adviser is that I didn't know where to start or exactly what I needed. Now I know.<br /><br />I like this book, and I think it's going to be a good reference in the next few years. Though I don't have any hard evidence yet, I think this book will save me hundreds of dollars in legal fees and accountant fees (now that I know what I'm looking for and asking for, their billable hours will be fewer) and probably thousands of dollars in taxes over the years.Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-11024796820833640222010-04-09T15:31:00.010-05:002010-04-10T15:57:19.499-05:00Book report (Updated): Million Dollar Consulting (Third edition, 2003)Update, 10 April 2010: I wrote a review of this book on 9 April 2010. I retract my original review. I felt like I had given the book a fairly good review. I mentioned several times that Alan Weiss's book gives new consultants lots of encouragement. I now feel not quite so encouraged.<br /><br />The author of this book left a comment on this blog (I left the full comment there, so you can see it if you wish), saying, in part:<br /><blockquote>Maybe if you followed my advice, which is free on my blog and elsewhere, you wouldn't have to resort to $4 used books. And you could have taken the time at least to visit my site, which puts most others to shame.<br /></blockquote><br />To that piece of advice I ask, "How can I know if I'm following Alan Weiss's advice without the book?" I'm supposed to Google Alan Weiss? I'd never heard of him before. Or Google the phrase "Million Dollar Consultant"? It's not something that pops into my head as something to Google.<br /><br />I did visit the site mentioned in the 2003 edition of the book, and it isn't the same as the picture in the book. The new version is much too busy for my taste, but that's OK. Not all of us have the same style when it comes to web design.<br /><br />I guess some of us don't have the same taste when it comes to consulting either, for that matter.<br /><br />Again, as a disclaimer, I did read the third edition (2003) which I bought at a used bookstore for $4. There is a new edition, and I haven't read it. Would I shell out the money to buy the latest edition new from my favorite bookstore? Not after reading Alan's comment. Maybe I don't understand how to run a consulting business (which is why I'm buying books), but maybe, too, Alan's books are not as encouraging as I had originally thought.Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20156640.post-91739025465996541552010-04-09T13:45:00.001-05:002010-04-09T16:46:43.119-05:00Growing upI talked with a colleague today who said she still didn't know what she wanted to be when she grew up. I laughed because I sympathized with her dilemma.<br /><br />As long as I can remember, Daddy had told me I should be a statistician, that I was good at it, and I believed him without reservations when I was young. However, there were times in grad school and early in my career when I had my doubts.<br /><br />During the summers of 1985 and 1986, I played the piano in the lobby of Old Faithful Inn in Yellowstone National Park. It was the best summer job in the world. The work hardly seemed like work, the pay and tips were great, I met lots of fun people, and there was always so much to do and so many places to go. My second year there, my brother worked there, too, and we had a great time on some amazing backbacking trips. I also dated a cowboy that summer, and through him, I met some bar and ski resort owners, several of whom offered me jobs for the ski season or for the summer.<br /><br />When things would get tough in my life, I would dream about being back out in Wyoming or Idaho, married to Greg and playing the piano for a living. It seemed ideal, perfect. Of course, it's simple to think it's perfect when it's just a dream. Real life has a way of making things less than perfect.<br /><br />I still love playing the piano and singing, but I'm so happy working on seasonal adjustment projects for clients. There is nowhere else I'd like to be and nothing else I'd like to be doing. It doesn't mean that I won't go back to school someday, or that I won't start piano lessons again, but even if that happens, I don't want to give up my work on time series. <br /><br />So today, talking about what we wanted to be when we grew up, I realized that I'm finally there. I do want to be a statistician, with no reservations. <br /><br />Being grown up feels pretty good after all.Catherinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05216383794559097186noreply@blogger.com0